I’ve always done Mock Drafts the standard “pick a player with the team and don’t swap picks”. No one knows what offers are going to creep up, so I won’t try to account for that, even though I have a doozy of a scenario cooked up. Either way, these are my picks, agree or disagree, but they’re mine and I have pretty sound reasoning behind them. If teams don’t take the guys I am laying out here, there is nothing I can do but pity them.
1. San Francisco – Alex Smith - QB - Utah
At 6'4", 217lbs. Smith possesses all the skills to make it in the NFL. He benefits from Matt Leinart from staying at USC for one more year. Smith would still be a top 5 if Leinart declared for the draft, but definitely not #1. He provides San Fran with a QB that has skills and knowledge they can use now and in the future.
2. Miami – Braylon Edwards – WR - Michigan
Michigan constantly produces amazing talent at all the skill positions and this year is no exception. At 6'2"¾, 211lbs., Edwards is a game breaker. He simply has it all. He has the size, the speed, the hands, and the knowledge to blow a game wide open. A lot of people have Miami going after a running back here and I won’t necessarily disagree that they could grab Ronnie Brown here, but Edwards’ stock right not is white hot. I’m not really sold on people saying Rodgers will be taken by Miami simply because I think they saw how A.J. Feely can do if he has some time to make sound decisions. Edwards goes and makes Feely better instantly.
3. Cleveland – Aaron Rodgers - QB - California
Some are saying they won’t grab a QB here because Romeo is defensively minded; however, there is no one defensively that cracks the top 5 and it is still a matter of putting points on the board. Because of that (and the fact that Cleveland recently got Rueben Droughns from Denver, sealing up their RB situation), Rodgers is the pick here. Although he is 6'2" 223lbs., he plays bigger and isn’t careless when he manages the game. There is some serious talent in Cleveland, and I’d be surprised if they don’t make the playoffs this season.
4. Chicago – Ronnie Brown – RB – Auburn
A month ago there is no way Brown falls here. He’s an explosive back that can turn up field and make you miss. He’s a solid 6'0"¼ 233lbs. and is just what Chicago ordered. If Grossman is to be the leader of Chi-town, Brown will alleviate a lot of the pressure. Brown can block very well and loves to hit and make people miss.
5. Tampa Bay – Carnell “Cadillac” Williams – RB – Auburn
Gruden wishes that Smith or Rodgers would somehow fall this far but that won’t happen. Conventional wisdom tells me that Gruden (who is in love with Alstott) would love to have a smaller slashing back over a bruiser like Cedric Benson. Williams isn’t that much smaller (in fact, he’s a bit taller, but he ranges between 5 to 10 lbs. lighter usually) but he’s the quicker off the cut than the two and that is the difference I think Gruden is looking for. At 5'10"¾ 217lbs., Gruden is satisfied with his pick, especially since his coaching staff had a unique perspective in evaluating him by coaching him in the Senior Bowl.
6. Tennessee – Antrel Rolle - CB - Miami (FL)
I saw one draft (just recently) that said to not be surprised if the Titans grab a RB here. I have no idea where that is coming from, since Chris Brown is starting to come into his own and is doing a mighty fine job replacing (and making people forget) Eddie George. With Andre Dyson signing with the Seahawks, this assures that Tennessee will go for a Corner here. The most physical and more natural 6'0" 201lb. Rolle is who they grab. Adam “Pac Man” Jones would be good as well if Rolle is gone before this, but he’s a good 3 inches shorter than Rolle, and size matters in the NFL.
7. Vikings – Mike Williams – WR – USC
This isn’t a shocking pick, because Williams instantly addresses the gap that is there when Moss was traded to the Raiders. Amazing timing on the Vikings part. It is quite interesting to see where Williams (who is definitely in the top 10) will go and where his “counter part” Maurice Clarett will go, both leaving college the same day. Granted, the circumstances and character are stark contrasts, but either way, you know Clarett will be wishing he could be in Williams’ position. At 6'4"½ 229, he’s bigger and stronger than Braylon Edwards, but he’s been out of college a year, and Edwards is probably the more gifted overall athlete. Not to take anything away from Williams because he’s a physical specimen at his position. He has amazing hands and leaping ability, and will provide Culpepper with instant comfort. Normally people don’t draft many rookie WRs in their fantasy drafts, but Williams will go very quickly in most leagues.
8. Arizona – Cedric Benson – RB - Texas
Just 3 months ago, Benson was being touted as the number 1 overall. His stock has slipped a little, only because of workouts by his competition and through no fault of his own. At 5'10"½ 222lbs., Benson gives Denny Green the power back he needs (he needs a lot of things, but why not start out with a stud RB?). He has great hands and blocking ability and has an amazing speed burst when he needs it. His stiff arm is deadly and he hits the holes hard and fast before they can close on him. This is amazing quality at this pick for Arizona.
9. Washington – Adam “Pac Man” Jones - CB - West Virginia
Not the most physically imposing Corner in the draft at 5'9"½ 187lbs., but he has an amazing nose for the ball and is extremely solid in defending the deep ball. Jones also does special teams and makes people miss with his punt returns that often produce much needed and useful yardage for the offense. He can jump and change direction in the air, and plays the ball, not the man. His knowledge makes up for his lack of size and always plays big. Replacing Fred Smoot with Jones is an ideal situation in an ideal world. Gibbs will be more than happy with his production and instant leadership.
10. Detroit – Derrick Johnson - LB – Texas
The best linebacker in the draft by far. He’s faster than some RBs and hits like a Mack truck. At 6'3"¼ 242lbs., he is by far everything you look for in a linebacker. He moves across the field much like Ray Lewis and uses his head like Tedy Bruschi. Flies to the ball and has amazing instincts for what is happening. Mariucci will be more than happy to take Johnson here. It helps him shore up his defense and gives him someone to lead it.
11. Dallas – Alex Barron – OT - Florida State
At 6'7"½ 320lbs., Barron is the person that will be charged with protecting Bledsoe and Henson for Dallas. If Bledsoe has a reliable Tony Boselli-esque backside tackle to give him some time to pick defenses apart, Dallas could definitely make a nice run to the playoffs. I think Bledsoe is a 2 or 3 year solution for Dallas and have major doubts about Henson, so with Dallas’ 20th overall now I expect them to go after Campbell at QB from Auburn to be the heir apparent to Bledsoe. Drafting a beefy sound OT like Barron here helps the now and future, whoever the QB may be for Dallas. Barron rarely gets beat and takes giving up sacks on an extremely personal level. He is a beast to get around and makes you earn every inch on the field.
12. San Diego – Troy Williamson – WR – South Carolina
Some people are picking San Diego to go defense here, and they could easily grab Shawne Merriman or Demarcus Ware, but I’m banking on them wanting some good size at WR and Williamson is one of the biggest and more talented wideouts that is left. He’s not a monster at 6'1"¼ 203lbs., but he’s the bigger alternative to Mark Clayton out of Oklahoma. He has the speed to separate himself from the average NFL corner and the skills to haul in the deep bombs over the top. Williamson will make Brees a happy QB in Charger Land.
13. Houston – Travis Johnson – DT – Florida State
Having recently acquired a shutdown corner in Buchanon, DT is the way to go for Houston. I would have thrown them in to grab a Corner, but they’re quite content with getting Buchanon. Johnson has some good speed for his position and at 6'3"½ 305lbs., he’s got the size to boot. He is versatile and can also play DE if needed (and plays it well). He will be a force to reckon with and Dom Capers will love molding this kid.
14. Carolina – Demarcus Ware – DE – Troy
Demarcus Ware is just what Carolina needs right now. With his excellent pass rushing skills and speed off the edge, he’ll open up huge holes on the line for Dan Morgan to make some big plays (provided Morgan can remain healthy). Ware fits into the Carolina scheme quite well, and he is also a good enough athlete to play LB. At 6'4" 251lbs., he has the size to excel in any position the Carolina staff puts him in. Just because he went to little ol’ Troy State doesn’t mean he can play. This kid can straight out ball.
15. Kansas City – Shawne Merriman – DE/LB – Maryland
The signing of Patrick Surtain to a 7 year deal worth almost $51 million this week means KC can continue to address their defensive issues by grabbing an outstanding defensive player that is extremely versatile. He is a prototypical Tweener at 6'4"¼ 272lbs. and can play both DE and LB. He’s an excellent pass rusher and would fit perfectly where Dexter Coakley left off at LB.
16. New Orleans – David Pollack – DE – Georgia
Georgia has a long history of producing quality football players, specifically defensive players. Pollack is no exception. Granted, he’s not the size of Richard Seymour, but at 6'2" 265lbs., he has good size and better hands. He rarely lets a Tackle get both hands on him. He’s very bullish and finesse at the same time. If he can’t get around you, you’ll go through you. He has no problems with choosing either style. What he doesn't have in size and speed he more than makes up for it with hard work, dedication and a motor that never stops. He is extremely tenacious, and his gritty determination and intangibles are what sets him apart from the crowd.
17. Cincinnati – Dan Cody – DT – Oklahoma
This kid has a mean streak longer than the California coastline – but that isn’t a bad thing. It just may be what Marvin Lewis is looking for. If he somehow slips down to Baltimore, he fits into their attitude and scheme as well. He has the size and speed for this position at 6'5"½ 254 lbs. He is extremely physical and always is looking to make an example out of you and get on the film tape. Numbers were good while attending Oklahoma. Has the size and speed for the spot. He is very intensive and physical. Cody can play DT/DE/OLB and is definitely a Tweener. Just what Lewis is looking for.
18. Vikings – Marcus Spears – DE – LSU
We are heavily in the area where DE and DTs are grabbed up, its like a firesale is taking place. Spears only falls this far because of other team needs in the league and is awesome quality at this spot. Marcus Spears has great size and is surprisingly athletic for a guy his size (6'4" 307lbs.). A lot of drafts have him going to Minnesota earlier at the 7 spot, but he gets to Minnesota, just a lot later. He is a former tight and has excellent hands, which have helped him come up with some big interceptions for TDs. He fits more into a 3-4 than a 4-4, with his excellent pass rushing skills. Look for him to prove to all the other teams that passed on him that they made a mistake.
19. St. Louis – Jammal Brown – OT – Oklahoma
Try finding a better tackle tandem in the league if you have a healthy Orlando Pace and Kyle Turley. You won’t. The key word is healthy. So the Rams need to go to the big boy Jammal Brown since Turley’s career is up in the air. He is one of the best offensive lineman in all of college football and even won the Outland Trophy. He is an exceptional athlete with excellent pass and rush blocking abilities. At 6'5"¾ 316lbs., he keeps his feet under his shoulders and doesn’t get out of position that often. Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson will have fun running behind him, and Bulger will have an even more fun time knowing his backside is covered.
20. Dallas – Mark Clayton – WR – Oklahoma
Bill Parcells doesn’t always draft the biggest guy. He goes after guys that fit his system and have the biggest hearts. Look at all his previous drafts and you’ll see what I’m talking about. Mark Clayton fits that bill (no pun intended…ok, maybe a little). He’s smaller, but does everything well. He has great speed, runs polished routes, catches anything he can see, and makes people miss after he’s caught it. He’s a great overall package, and is a younger version of Troy Brown. People may doubt him because of his lack of size (5'10"¼ 193lbs.) but don’t doubt his heart for a second. Bledsoe will look to him as a quick outlet much like he did to Brown for most of his career. Coupled with the fact that Drew now has a real TE again in Witten, this could be a Comeback Player of the Year in the making for Bledsoe.
21. Jacksonville – Erasmus Jones – DE – Wisconsin
Looks like we took a short break during the firesale of DTs and DEs to grab a WR and an OT. Well, the sale is back on. This happens a lot in most drafts. Teams are influenced quickly by what other teams are doing. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing but it can quickly change what direction you were heading in if you have multiple needs. Jones is a fantastic drifter in this draft. Some drafts have him in the top 15, others have him in the end of the 1st Round. One thing is for sure, and that is he has a lot of potential with his great pass rush. He has good instincts and good size for an NFL defensive end at 6'4" 266lbs. He plays outside in, and has a nose for the ball. During his Senior campaign he was virtually unblockable and was one player teams specifically wrote up new offenses for. He could be one of the best pass rushers of all time. This seems like an over exaggeration but I assure you it isn’t. Just watch the highlights and wait a couple years. Then come talk to me
22. Baltimore – Darryl Blackstock – LB - Virginia
Brian Billick would most certainly have grabbed Jones if he were still here, but he isn’t. Blackstock is a great fit here since Edgarton Hartwell left town, and his stock is on the rise. He is very raw, and is more of a pass rusher, but Billick will mold him into the type of player he needs. He has all the tools to be excellent, and playing next to Ray Lewis certainly doesn’t hurt. He’s got a nose for the holes and fills them quickly, avoiding the trap blocks and getting to the ballcarrier with a sense of urgency. He’s got a motor and is just in need of a tune up.
23. Seattle – Fabian Washington – CB – Nebraska
With this kid’s speed it is amazing he has lasted this long. Running a 4.25 official time at the Combine and even an unofficial workout time of 4.19, Washington has the speed to hang with the best of them. Where he lacks in ideal size at 5'10"½ 188lbs. he makes up in his speed and nose or the ball. He makes insane interceptions and plays the ball better than he can play the man. His footwork is superb and he tries to be physical at times, which is a great sign of a young aggressive corner. Seattle is lucking out if they grab him at the 23 spot and should thank the other teams that grab corners before them.
24. Greenbay – David Baas – OL – Michigan
Greenbay needs to patch their offensive line, and the draft could be the place to do it. At 6’4”, 319lbs., Baas is the best lineman available, and he can play all positions on the line, but excels at Center. He runs a 5.09 40 and benched 225 29 times. Philly would love for him to slip through the cracks and down to them at the 31 spot but that won’t happen. Baas has terrific balance, great hands, and uses his size to his advantage. Slightly taller than his position calls for, Baas is versatile enough to jump over to OT and deal with the quick strong DEs that the NFL has to offer. This is just what Favre needs protecting him.
25. Washington (from Denver) – Jason Campbell – QB – Auburn
Perhaps it was a botched interview or just a “leak” to the press, but its quite obvious that Washington was interested in Denver’s pick here so they could grab a QB to supplant Patrick Ramsey. Jason Campbell has the speed, strength, size, and overall athletic skills to easily take that away from Ramsey. But will he? It’s very rare that a team comes outright and says who they will be selecting, especially when its not for a pick that is almost at the end of the first round. Makes you wonder. Either way, Campbell was solid for Auburn, and will be for the ‘Skins, especially if Joe Gibbs has something to say about it. At 6’5”, 230lbs., he has the size to do some serious damage in the NFL. Out of all the QBs that took part in the combine, he was one of only two to not do the 40.
26. Oakland (from New York Jets) – Barrett Ruud – LB – Nebraska
For a month now, everyone and their brother has predicted Ruud would be awesome value for the Patriots at the 32 spot. With all that commotion, and the way Oakland has been moving, they’re jumping on Ruud at this spot. With excellent combine results of a 4.69 40 and 25 reps at 225, Ruud also has the size (6”2”, 248) to be a factor in Oakland immediately and make people forget that Napoleon Harris jumped ship. Ruud has a nose for the ball, hits hard and often, and is always working on forcing turnovers.
27. Atlanta – Khalif Barnes – OT – Washington
At 6'5"½ 305lbs., Barnes has intrigued the Falcons. They’d love a bigtime OT to guard for Vick and push the defense around a bit. They would get that in Barnes. For a kid his size, he is remarkably quick (4.93) and he could use his speed to help the ground game just as much as he could to run down defenders and keep them off Vick if he decides to stay in the pocket for once. If Vick ever gets comfortable sitting in the pocket and using his feet second, he will eat up defenses for years to come. Barnes is the kind of guy to have on the line now so Vick can develop.
28. San Diego – Shaun Cody – DT – USC
At 6'4" 293lbs., Cody is a beast. For all intents and purposes, he is a Tweener because he lacks a little size to be a solid DT, but wherever he will be, he will upset offensive lineman for years to come. He’s been the most disruptive force on the D-line in all of college, closing holes and making tackles. He is incredibly strong and sheds offensive lineman like its his business (well, it is actually…). I’d really be surprised if he lasts this long, but if he does get to San Diego, they won’t pass on him for sure. Being a local kid, they’ve had their eyes on all USC prospects for years, and they like what they see.
29. Indianapolis – Carlos Rogers – CB – Auburn
20 to 3. That score will forever echo in the minds of Indy fans and their players. One of the most prolific offenses in the history of the NFL is held to only 3 points. So you’d think they’d draft for offense, right??? Nope. Their offense wasn’t the problem, it was the Patriots. They have Indy’s number for some reason, and if they had a defense that was half decent, maybe they could have stopped the bleeding earlier and made it a closer game. That said, they need a corner, and they have their man in Rogers. He is a fantastic athlete and the term “playmaker” is constantly coming up when people mention this kid. He has good size at 6'0"¼ 196lbs., and runs a solid 4.35 40. He’s a playmaker that defensive minded head coach Tony Dungy will hail as a savior.
30. Pittsburgh – Matt Jones – QB/WR/TE – Arkansas
Bill Cowher loves players that can play a number of positions. He gets that in Matt Jones. The kid is effective in every position he plays, be it QB, WR, or TE. A big kid at 6’6”, 241lbs., he has a motor on him, running a 4.39 40 and outstanding hands. He could be what the Steelers ordered, with Burress jumping over to the Giants. Big Ben could use a big target that will work his tail off to make sure no one wonders why he was drafted here. Some are saying he is a lock for the second round and is a risk here, but at the 30th pick it is already almost the 2nd round and he’s a talented kid. Drafting solely on potential wouldn’t be a bad thing here. If he does not go here I would not be shocked to see Philly grab him.
31. Philadelphia – Chris Spencer – C – Ole Miss.
Not as good as Baas from Michigan, Philly still fulfills a need here by grabbing the best remaining O-lineman in the 1st Round. At 6’2”, 309lbs. he has the prototypical size of your standard NFL Center, and has average lineman speed running a 5.18 40 and benching 26. More quick than fast, Spencer is the poor man’s Baas, in that he is not as versatile as Baas is with his multitude of positions; however, Spencer may only play Center but he plays it very well. He protected Eli Manning for most of his college career and look how that kid turned out.
32. New England – Thomas Davis – SS/FS – Georgia
Bill Belichick loves diversity, and Tommy Davis can provide him just that. He can play SS/FS/ILB. He is by far the best safety available. Whether the Patriots use him there is still to be seen, but that doesn’t really matter because wherever he is put he will excel. He is a sound and solid tackler, and provides great run support. He has great size (6'1" 230 lbs) and range (runs a 4.65), and is also very strong. He can move sideline to sideline with the best of them, and the Patriots seem to favor Georgian defenders the last few years. Would not be surprised if he goes to Indy either.
A couple other players I think will go to teams (in later rounds):
Maurice Clarett – Denver always takes chances on running backs, as does their arch nemesis the Raiders. I wouldn’t be surprised if either of these teams grab Clarett in the later rounds (4th or 5th, depending who is available at back)
Dan Orlovsky – Big QB out of UConn and is my darkhorse sleeper for some team out there. Tops on my list that may grab him in the 2nd to 4th rounds are Greenbay to replace Favre in the long run and New England to backup Brady and learn from the best in the business.
That’s it. That’s how I see it all playing out. Either way, it should be a fantastic draft, and I can’t wait for it to already be here!
Enjoy :)
- Dan
