With all this talk about how teams are losing (or trying to) on purpose in order to have a shot at the sure fire # 1 draft pick this year so they can grab Reggie Bush, time after time after time are people saying that "No, these are professionals, they wouldn't do that". First and foremost, the NFL is a business. At this point in many teams' seasons, one more loss doesn't matter.
Except in April.
Except when you're setting up your Draft Board.
Except when you have a shot at a stud like Reggie Bush.
Today I heard an interesting scenario: with the way the matchups and scenarios can play out this weekend, there can be a 5 way tie for the # 1 pick, including the Jets having first dibs at it. They have Curtis Martin (an aging RB who just had knee surgery) and depending on how Chad Pennington heals (or doesn't) they could have a need at QB. Which is the safer pick? Bush or Matt Leinart? If Pennington misses any amount of time again next year, Testaverde or Brooks Bollinger won't cut it. When Martin comes back, he may be a step slower, but even then he'd still be a top 15 back in the league for sure, and having a QB like Leinart to pull some pressure off of him from carrying the load a bit could help him out.
One more little scenario that jumps at you is something completely left field that could definitely happen:
The Jets trading for Terrell Owens.
What?!?
Yes. Yes, I've read a few articles and rumors that say that TO could be on his way to New York. Now if this happens before the draft, and the Jets have a shot at Bush or Leinart, who do they grab? Leinart? Because you need healthy talent that can actually throw the ball to him? Or a big-time game breaking RB that can bust the game open and make it easier on TO getting balls thrown his way, be it from Pennington, Bollinger, or Testaverde?
Rewind back to the beginning. I said the NFL is a business and how all pros just balk and laugh at the idea of "losing on purpose", but "trying new things" during the last few weeks of the season when it's clear you have no shot at the playoffs is easy to mask and make it look like you aren't losing on purpose.
Here are a couple scenarios that almost always play out at the end of the season for non-playoff bound teams:
- Teams try backups in place of starters. A QB that has been on the bench (ie: Philip Rivers in San Diego) can easily play in the final game of the season instead of the normal starter (Drew Brees in this case).
- Teams can try new plays they normally wouldn't try if they were still in the playoff hunt. Not that teams play more conservatively when they are in the playoffs or shooting for them, but this is when you sometimes see more "college" type plays, like flea flickers and fun plays like that that don't usually pan out at the pro level.
- Teams try players at new positions. This is sometimes common during preseason, to see where guys can fit in on the squad. The Patriots did this with Troy Brown a couple years ago, opting to try him at the defensive back position. It turned out to be more than an experiment and paid dividends bigtime throughout the season and into the playoffs.
These aren't all bad things, which can help give a team a good look at how some of their players can play against the starters of other teams. This is better than a preseason game, because many preseason games, you don't have all the true starters on the field, except for the final game and that is usually only for the first half. This is a better benchmark for future player decisions.
But like I said, it could be "losing on purpose" that looks like they are just "trying new things".
Pro players aren't always in control of what happens on the field. The coaching staff is influenced by the front office more towards the end of the season than any other time because it is a business. It's not that the players don't do their best, but they aren't the ones calling the plays, putting people in their spots on the field, and trying new things.
This weekend should be interesting. I don't think Houston will beat San Francisco (even though they should), but I don't think it will be as obvious as that horrible 30 yard field goal shank a couple weeks back that would have tied the game.
We'll see though, I've been shocked before and I am sure it will happen again.