Mock Draft 1.0

My Mock is always "late" in the sense that I like to wait until Free Agency has died down for the most part. It gives me a more clear picture on team needs and what I think will happen. As usual, my mock won't take into account trades, even though this could be a draft with a ton of movement, from the Jets and Pats at spots 6 and 7 respectively, to Dallas potentially jumping up into the top 3. I've also changed up the look and format of my Mock, for ease of reading, and also ease of putting together.

That said, let's get this going! Round 1 with analysis, Rounds 2 and 3 will be quick and dirty with just the team and the pick. I will post the 2^nd and 3^rd rounds in a bit.

 

#	Team	Player	Analysis
1	Miami Dolphins	Jake Long OT – Michigan	It's old news now that the Dolphins are negotiating with a number of the top potential picks right now. I think Parcells looked at game film from last year and decided whoever is taken first overall they will need protection. Jake Long does just that.
2	St. Louis Rams	Chris Long DE – Virginia	If I'm wrong in the 1 slot and Chris Long is taken, I see the Rams grabbing Dorsey here. They need to build on defense. Chris Long is exceptional, and with genes like his he will be something special. He is more than likely going to be a DE, but has the versatility to drop back and play OLB.
3	Atlanta Falcons	Glenn Dorsey DT – LSU	People are constantly questioning Dorsey's health, but why? Even when he was hurt he played, never missing a game. Isn't that what teams want?? Some think Matt Ryan goes here, I don't, and here is why: the new GM for the Falcons is coming from the Patriots, an organization that won 3 Superbowls because of building their team around a stellar defensive line, and draft skill positions later. They do that here, trying to emulate that blueprint.
4	Oakland Raiders	Darren McFadden RB – Arkansas	Every free agent pickup seems to fly in the face of what Lane Kiffin wants, and is all about Al Davis. If that is true, McFadden is the sexy pick here. If Dorsey is still around here, maybe they use the pick to replace Warren Sapp, but McFadden is something special and won't make it out of the top 6 regardless.
5	Kansas City Chiefs	Matt Ryan QB – Boston College	A lot of Mocks have the Chiefs taking a CB here, but who is their QB? Huard? Croyle? Matt Ryan could provide consistency here early on, and I think Herm Edwards needs some consistency to help save him his job. Ryan is not only a safe pick but a smart one.
6	New York Jets	Vernon Gholston DE – Ohio State	A lot of people think the Jets will take Gholston just because the Pats want him. I tend to agree. Aside from the super success of guys like Patrick Willis and David Harris, the Jets could have two of the best young linebackers if they take Gholston and put him next to David Harris. They've spent a ton of money in free agency, and I don't see them dropping down to avoid paying money here.
7	New England Patriots	Keith Rivers LB – USC	My Mocks don't take into account teams trading down. But if I was a betting man, I'd say the Patriots would trade out of this pick if Gholston isn't there if they get good value. Rivers is a great linebacker, and he was even brought into New England recently, but the Pats are down a pick this year, and there is great depth at CB.
8	Baltimore Ravens	Limas Sweed WR – Texas	The Ravens need to get home run threats on the field for Boller or whoever they put out there at the helm. Sweed does just that. Originally I had them taking Rodgers-Cromartie here, but there is a new coach in town and unlike Brian Billick, he really COULD be an offensive genius…
9	Cincinnati Bengals	Sedrick Ellis DT – USC	Cincy is not only thrilled that they get a stud DT here, but they get someone that more than likely will not end up in jail in the first 18 months of his NFL career. What a welcome change that would be! Ellis could go higher, but the way I see things shaking out, he would be a great fit here and will have an immediate impact.
10	New Orleans Saints	Leodis McKelvin CB – Troy	This is one of those names people throw around when they talk about the Pats or Ravens for their picks. Generally I don't see small town school guys going within the top 10, not because they aren't talented, just because of the level of play and comparables there are out there with some of the bigger school guys. The Saints signed Randall Gay, but still need depth and skill at the position.
11	Buffalo Bills	Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB – Tennessee State	If you're even a casual NFL fan, last year you were always hearing the name "Cromartie" when it came to play making ability. The Bills need some of that, and some think this is a bit of a small reach here, but Rodgers-Cromartie is a stud, and posted a top three 40 time (4.33) for CB, a top vertical leap (38") and a strong showing on the bench (17). The Bills need athletic fast corners to keep up with Randy Moss and company, so they snag him here.
12	Denver Broncos	Ryan Clady OT – Boise State	At first I had the Broncos taking Mendenhall here, but they love those RBs they pull out of nowhere, so I'll build on that. I also had them taking a WR, especially with Brandon Marshall out for an extended period of time for slashing his arm open. I am still leaning towards that a bit…if not, Clady is the pick. You can never have enough offensive linemen that know how to zone block and Clady is a great value pick here.
13	Carolina Panthers	Rashard Mendenhall RB – Illinois	DeShaun Foster is not walking through that door. But does it matter? I don't think so. The Panthers could grab a LB here to replace Dan Morgan, or a RB. I saw RB, as Mendenhall did superbly at the Combine (4.45 dash, 26 reps, 33" vert), and his last collegiate contest was a great showing, running all over USC (155 yards) and showing people he can succeed in the NFL.
14	Chicago Bears	Malcolm Kelly WR - Oklahoma	Who didn't the Bears lose in free agency? They lost Muhammed and Berrian and basically signed no one. They need a QB, they need WRs, they need another RB, they need everything. This team totally confuses me. Kelly is the smart pick here and he'll make any QB they plug in look half decent. Note: if Lovie Smith goes with Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman at QB someone needs to kick him in the face to wake him up.
15	Detroit Lions	Aqib Talib CB – Kansas	Talib's stock dropped noticeably (was going to the Patriots for a while in many Mocks) and not too many people understood why. He has good speed (4.47), decent times in shuttles, and a fantastic vertical (38"). But he is super weak. 10 reps on the bench for a guy that is 6'1, 205? Come on. People question whether he is a tackling Corner or a pusher (aka Deion Sanders). He had a great Pro Day though and that keeps him in the top 15.
16	Arizona Cardinals	Kenny Phillips Safety – Miami	The University of Miami is widely known to produce great running backs and safeties. Phillips could develop into one of those safeties. He has decent speed (4.54) and strength (19 reps) for someone that is 6'2", 210lbs. I expect more strength from a guy his size, but he hits like a truck and has excellent instincts. The Cardinals need someone like that in their secondary.
17	Minnesota Vikings	Derrick Harvey DE – Florida	Harvey is one of those tweeners, and has the raw talent and skill to jump as high as to the Patriots. Being an Urban Meyer guy, Belichick has the inside scoop on Harvey so if he goes up at 7 you know he is something special. Can he play OLB if needed? That's the question. The Vikings need to get a bit younger on their defensive line and by adding Harvey here they get just that.
18	Houston Texans	Mike Jenkins CB – South Florida	Jenkins was one of those guys who people pegged as the best CB in the draft…prior to the Combine. His workouts didn't hurt him, but he didn't separate himself from the other guys, as he didn't participate in most of the drills, including the vertical, broad jump, the 20 and 60 yard shuttles or the 3 cone drill. He ran a solid 40 (4.38) and posted a pretty decent bench for a CB (18 reps), but again, being from a small school and not doing all the workouts sometimes hurt you. The Texans need a playmaker to shut down some of the bigger WRs in their division and Jenkins is good value here.
19	Philadelphia Eagles	Devin Thomas WR - Michigan	People that are ragging on McNabb are certifiably insane. He still has the skills, he's just had absolute dumb luck when it comes to injuries. Is it smart Andy Reid got him insurance in the form of Kevin Kolb? Absolutely. They have some aging holes on defense, but they need more weapons on offense than just Kevin Curtis, Brian Westbrook, and LJ Smith. Devin Thomas had a fantastic Combine and Pro Day workout and could be one of the very few rookie WRs to actually make an impact right away.
20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Chris Williams OT – Vanderbilt	Jon Gruden loves offense. And Quarterbacks. When you have 39 QBs on your roster, it's great to have a solid line up front to protect all of them. Williams is a beast with quick feet and solid pass and run blocking ability. He is a natural leader and could be one of those Tackles that is the cornerstone of your line for years to come.
21	Washington Redskins	Jeff Otah OT – Pittsburgh	Otah could be gone here as his stock is rising fast than a loaf of bread. The Steelers would pounce on the local product if he fell to them at 23 but I don't see that happening. Like the Bucs they need someone that has an arsenal of skills and Otah has them. He doesn't have sexy Combine numbers (5.56 in the dash, 27 reps, 22" vertical), but you can't teach size, and at 6'6", 330lbs., he is one of the biggest linemen in the draft.
22	Dallas Cowboys	Felix Jones RB – Arkansas	This is the popular pick among Mocks right now simply because it makes sense: losing Julius Jones + Jerry Jones' alma mater = drafting Felix Jones. Jones is the "other back" from Arkansas, the "other" guy in McFadden's shadow, but he should have a pretty productive career, especially playing with Tony Romo and splitting time with Marion the Barbarian Barber.
23	Pittsburgh Steelers	Calais Campbell DE – Clemson	The Steelers are defined by their 3-4. But the need pieces to put in that 3-4 to make it effective. They need some serious pass rushing ability and depth at DE, and Campbell gives them that. A former high school TE, Campbell is great with his hands to go with very serviceable speed (5.03 dash) with some serious size (6'8", 285).
24	Tennessee Titans	Branden Albert OG – Virginia	Albert's stock is rising as well, but there is a high premium on versatile linemen, and Albert could be the best of the crop. The Titans would love to have him and protect Vince Young, but many think he will be long gone here, a potential top 5 pick and will go to the Chiefs. Nevertheless he's my 24 pick here, and the Titans could do a lot worse.
25	Seattle Seahawks	Dustin Keller TE – Purdue	This kid is a bonafide FREAK at the TE position: at 6'4", 240lbs. he is probably close to his max size for his frame, but his numbers are disgusting: he ran a 4.53 in the 40, clicked out 26 reps on the bench, jumped out of his shoes in the vert hitting 38", and had some of the best shuttle times overall. He's not bad at blocking, but he could become a premier pass catching TE very quickly.
26	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kentwan Balmer DT – North Carolina	Balmer could go much higher as there is a super premium on stud DT this year and he is easily in the top 3, right behind Dorsey and Ellis. After that it gets cloudy fast. The Jags need help up front, and although they could go DE here, I think DT makes the most sense for them. Originally had them taking Quentin Groves, but Balmer is still here and it makes the most sense.
27	San Diego Chargers	Jonathan Stewart RB – Oregon	The Chargers need to reload at RB. Losing Michael Turner hurts, but they need to move on, and Stewart has the explosiveness to make people say "Michael who?" in a few years. He complements LT very nicely. If they don't go RB here, they should probably try to draft a LB that won't test positive for banned substances…like oh, I don't know, Merriman and now Cooper.
28	Dallas Cowboys	Brandon Flowers CB – Virginia Tech	The Cowboys really have 3 needs: WR, RB, and CB. This could easily change between now and Draft day, based solely on getting Pacman Jones. If they get him I think they will snag DeSean Jackson here. Flowers has speed and good size, and he can tackle. Just what the Cowboys secondary needs…someone that knows how to tackle. Maybe he can teach Roy Williams how NOT to horsecollar people.
29	San Francisco 49ers	Dan Connor LB – Penn State	This is a reach, but bear with me: Connor is fantastic, and the 49ers saw how a great young LB (Patrick Willis) can make an immediate impact. If they draft Connor, they are basically set for the next 10 years as far as linebackers go. Everyone is saying they will snag Gosder Cherilus (OT) but with getting Joe Staley last year on the other side, I don't think they'll go that route here. Connor is a beast, and I so wish the Patriots still had that 31st pick and he could have fallen to them but alas, that's impossible.
30	Green Bay Packers	Antoine Cason CB – Arizona	Everyone knows the Packers are in need of depth at CB. Cason gives them some good height (6') and speed (4.49) and a solid vert (35"). He has the ability to bring an INT back for a TD, and did it quite well in Zona. His strength is pretty good (20 reps) but he could add some weight to himself (185lbs.) so he won't be thrown around when he tries to press.
31	New England Patriots	Forfeited	No pick because Roger Goodell deemed the Patriots violated league rules. The question that remains: will whoever is chosen first in the 2nd round be given 1st round money? Didn't think so…but some agents could make that argument…
32	New York Giants	DeSean Jackson WR – California	Plaxico Burress needs help. The credit for the Superbowl win has to go to the Giants d-line, and the o-line. They pressured Brady, they kept it off Eli just long enough. A play here or there and Wes Welker is the Superbowl MVP. That said, Jackson opens it up for Burress. If the Giants can reign Shockey in, they could repeat as NFC Champs. Jackson gives them some serious speed and athleticism to give Eli another option.